The State of AI: Is China About to Win the Race for AI Supremacy?

In a collaborative series between the Financial Times and MIT Technology Review, experts are debating the evolving dynamics of AI and its impact on global power. This week, John Thornhill (FT) and Caiwei Chen (MIT Technology Review) discuss the intensifying rivalry between Silicon Valley and Beijing for AI supremacy. Thornhill notes China's growing dominance in AI publications and patents, citing Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. He also points out the narrowing gap in top AI research talent between the U.S. and China. While U.S. institutions produced more notable AI models in 2024, Chinese researchers are excelling in algorithmic efficiency and the application of open-source models, particularly in fintech, e-commerce, and robotics. Chen acknowledges the U.S.’s lead in frontier research and infrastructure but argues that China is well-positioned to win the race in the widespread adoption of AI technologies. Despite challenges with chip access, Chinese companies are optimizing efficiency and releasing open-weight models. China's industrial policies and education initiatives are also facilitating rapid AI implementation and integration across various sectors. Chen highlights the optimism in China regarding AI's future, viewing it as a catalyst for economic growth. She adds that a new generation of Chinese AI founders are globally minded and building transnational companies. Thornhill concedes that speed isn't equivalent to supremacy, agreeing that China's strength in open-weight models presents a different approach to technology deployment compared to the U.S.'s preference for proprietary models.