AI in National Security: The Double-Edged Sword of Deterrence

The Rise of AI in National Security

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming a cornerstone of national security decision-making. Militaries worldwide are increasingly reliant on AI systems to analyze satellite imagery, evaluate adversaries’ capabilities, and provide strategic recommendations for military actions. While these advancements promise to revolutionize how states respond to threats, they also introduce new vulnerabilities that could undermine long-standing deterrence strategies.

At its core, effective deterrence requires a country to credibly demonstrate its ability and willingness to impose unacceptable harm on an adversary. AI strengthens this foundation by offering better intelligence, faster assessments, and more consistent decision-making. However, adversaries can exploit AI by poisoning training data or launching influence operations, distorting the output of these systems and compromising a nation’s ability to maintain credible deterrence.

AI’s Role in Modern Deterrence

AI’s potential to enhance deterrence lies in its ability to process vast amounts of data, providing clearer intelligence and accelerating leaders’ decision-making. For example, in the war in Ukraine, AI tools have enabled the Ukrainian military to analyze satellite and drone images, track troop movements, and aggregate data from radar and radio signals. This technology allows for a more complete assessment of military capabilities and helps leaders respond swiftly to emerging threats.

However, the same AI systems that strengthen deterrence can also be manipulated to weaken it. Adversaries can use AI to distort public opinion or poison the AI models that governments rely on for decision-making. By deploying AI-enabled influence operations and model poisoning, adversaries can reshape a country’s information environment, sowing confusion and undermining its deterrent signals.

The Threat of AI-Enabled Information Warfare

One of the most alarming risks of AI in national security is its role in information warfare. Adversaries can use generative AI to create synthetic personas and targeted content, spreading misinformation and manipulating public sentiment. For instance, a company like GoLaxy, aligned with Chinese state priorities, uses AI to build detailed psychological profiles and deploy synthetic personas to sway public opinion and weaken domestic support for military action.

Model poisoning is another significant threat. By manipulating the data pipelines of AI systems, adversaries can distort a defender’s understanding of its own capabilities and the threats it faces. This can lead to hesitation, miscalculation, and a weakened deterrent posture, as leaders struggle to interpret corrupted intelligence and gauge public sentiment accurately.

The implications of these threats are profound. In a crisis scenario, such as China imposing economic sanctions on Taiwan and conducting military drills, AI-powered systems could be compromised by poisoned data, leading to skewed assessments and discouraging decisive action. Meanwhile, AI-driven influence campaigns could suppress public support for intervention, further undermining the credibility of a nation’s deterrence.

In the AI era, deterrence is no longer just about capabilities and resolve. It also requires leaders to preserve the reliability of their information environment amid widespread digital distortion. As AI continues to evolve, policymakers and defense strategists must develop robust defenses against these emerging threats to ensure that AI systems can be trusted in moments of crisis.