From OpenAI Firing to $1.5 Billion Fund: The Leopold Aschenbrenner Story

Leopold Aschenbrenner's journey from a fired OpenAI researcher to a hedge fund manager is making waves. His ability to turn a viral AI prophecy into a $1.5 billion fund has sparked both admiration and skepticism in Silicon Valley and beyond.

A Meteoric Rise

Aschenbrenner's career began with a stint at Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX before a controversial period at OpenAI, which ended with his termination. Just two months later, his AI manifesto went viral, launching a hedge fund that now manages over $1.5 billion. This is an achievement for someone so young.

Four years after graduating from Columbia, Aschenbrenner is now in private discussions with tech leaders. These people see him as a visionary in the AI era. But, many are questioning whether the hype surrounding him is justified.

Genius or Lucky Novice?

Some view Aschenbrenner as a genius who foresaw the rise of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the competition with China. Others, including former OpenAI colleagues, see him as a novice repackaging hype into a fund pitch. His ascent highlights how Silicon Valley transforms trends into capital and influence.

Critics question whether his fund is a way to profit from techno-prophecy. Friends see it as a way to gain credibility in finance. According to Anthropic researcher Sholto Douglas, Aschenbrenner is betting his money on how the world will evolve.

Seizing the Zeitgeist

Aschenbrenner has capitalized on ideas gaining momentum in Silicon Valley's labs. He crafted a narrative that appeals to investors with a high-risk appetite. He declined to comment for this story, with many sources remaining anonymous due to fear of speaking about influential figures.

Many describe Aschenbrenner as intense, smart, brash, and confident. Some see him as a wunderkind, while others say his ideas are well-packaged but not novel. Still, investors credit his essays and early bets with foresight.

The Viral Manifesto

Aschenbrenner's rise reflects the convergence of capital eager to invest in AI, the Valley's obsession with AGI, and geopolitical tensions with China. His 165-page monograph, "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead," went viral in June 2024.

In his essay, Aschenbrenner stressed the need for governments and investors to recognize the rapid arrival of AGI. He argued that the U.S. risked falling behind. He compared his manifesto to George Kennan's "Long Telegram," which warned the U.S. about the Soviet threat.

Exponential Growth

Aschenbrenner argued that only a few understood the implications of AI's exponential growth. These people could capture the economic benefits. Douglas said the essay crystalized what many AI researchers felt. He was willing to bet on the exponential progress of AI.

The essay hit differently despite the circulation of many essays about AI risk. UT Austin professor Scott Aaronson called it an extraordinary document, saying the world hadn't priced in what was about to happen. An AI governance expert noted the ideas weren't new, but packaged compellingly.

A Divisive Figure

Among AI safety researchers, Aschenbrenner's work was divisive, with some feeling betrayed. They believed their caution had been repurposed into a sales pitch. Others agreed with his predictions and saw value in amplifying them. Still, even critics acknowledged his marketing skills.

According to a former OpenAI researcher, he captured the attention of powerful people. He articulated a narrative favorable to the moment: the U.S. needed to beat China and take AI security seriously. Tech leaders and investors shared the essay urgently.

The Hedge Fund Launch

Alongside his essays, Aschenbrenner launched Situational Awareness LP, a hedge fund focused on AGI. The fund was seeded by Silicon Valley heavyweights like Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, and Stripe's cofounders. Carl Shulman, an AI forecaster, joined as research director.

Aschenbrenner touted the explosive growth expected after AGI's arrival. He said that if AGI were priced in tomorrow, you could make 100x. The manifesto and fund reinforced each other, attracting investors.

Investment Strategy

Situational Awareness bets on global stocks benefiting from AI, like semiconductors and infrastructure. It also shorts industries that could lag behind. Public filings show stakes in companies like Intel and Broadcom. The fund delivered 47% gains in the first half of the year.

The fund has global investors, including West Coast founders, family offices, and institutions. Aschenbrenner has invested almost all of his net worth in the fund. Some observers have questioned whether Aschenbrenner’s early results reflect skill or good timing.

Variant Perception

Veteran investor Graham Duncan invested in Situational Awareness LP and serves as an advisor. He was struck by Aschenbrenner’s insider perspective and bold strategy. The fund's thesis reminded him of those who saw the subprime collapse coming.

Another investor was impressed by Aschenbrenner's decision to start a hedge fund rather than a VC fund. He said AGI would impact the global economy so much that it had to be expressed in liquid markets. This investor was stunned by their learning curve, calling them sophisticated.

Early Years and Education

Aschenbrenner enrolled at Columbia at 15 and graduated valedictorian at 19. He had a wunderkind reputation. He won a grant from economist Tyler Cowen and interned at the Global Priorities Institute.

He also cofounded Columbia's EA chapter. That network led him to the FTX Future Fund. There, he worked with William MacAskill and Avital Balwit, now chief of staff to Anthropic’s CEO and engaged to Aschenbrenner.

The OpenAI Stint

After FTX collapsed, Aschenbrenner joined OpenAI's "superalignment" team in 2023. The goal was to control future AI systems smarter than humans. UT computer science professor Aaronson was impressed by Aschenbrenner’s instinct to act.

Others found him politically clumsy and arrogant. One researcher recalled him casually sharing how many GPUs OpenAI had. Both Aschenbrenner and Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang denied the exchange.

The Firing and Aftermath

OpenAI fired Aschenbrenner in April 2024 for leaking internal information. Aschenbrenner maintained it was a brainstorming document. He argued the real reason was his concerns about OpenAI's security.

OpenAI said his security concerns did not lead to his separation. Aschenbrenner’s ouster came amid turmoil. Soon after, the superalignment team dissolved. Two months later, he published his manifesto and unveiled his hedge fund.

Doubts and Concerns

Skeptics acknowledge Aschenbrenner has been rewarded for channeling AI hype. Some question the ethics of profiting from AI fears. One former strategist said many in the Effective Altruism community are annoyed with him.

Aaronson worries Aschenbrenner’s message has landed in Washington. He is afraid that it might cement a technological Cold War between the U.S. and China. His impact may be less about returns and more about rhetoric, rippling from Silicon Valley to Washington.

To some, he’s a genius; to others, a Machiavellian figure. Billions are now riding on his bet on AGI.