Nvidia Stock: Earnings Report Market Test

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is expected to fluctuate by approximately 7.4% following its quarterly earnings report on May 28, according to Bloomberg-tracked options traders. This expected swing is less than the average 11.3% movement Nvidia shares have shown after earnings reports over the previous eight quarters. Options traders are anticipating less volatility in Nvidia shares on May 29 compared to the past eight quarters.

Nvidia's shares decreased by 8.5% in February, despite the company's fourth-quarter earnings exceeding expectations, due to a lower-than-estimated outlook for first-quarter gross margin. The day after that report, shares traded in an 11.4% range, rising by as much as 2.8% and falling by as much as 8.6%.

The range anticipated by options traders for May 29 suggests the stock could increase or decrease by as much as 7.4%, but it also allows for other possibilities. The stock, for instance, might increase by 5.4% while dropping by 2%, or it could fall by 4% while rising by 3.4%.

Despite the volatility Nvidia shares have shown after the last eight quarterly earnings reports, investors who have held onto their shares have seen substantial gains. According to Yahoo Finance data, Nvidia shareholders have seen an almost 120% median return over the past 10 years if they purchase shares before earnings results and hold them for 12 months.

Nvidia's May 28 results follow a year of turbulence for the stock, influenced by AI developments in China and changing trade policies. Nvidia stock struggled at the beginning of 2025 after a new AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek raised skepticism about Big Tech's AI spending and fears of a slowdown. Concerns were also fueled by indications of a potential slowdown in AI data center investments from Microsoft (MSFT), one of Nvidia's biggest customers.

President Trump’s trade war with China, the ban on exports of Nvidia's specialized chips to the country, and threats of global reciprocal tariffs have negatively impacted the stock, as competition heats up in the Chinese market from Huawei. Recent weeks have seen shares boosted by the temporary trade truce between the U.S. and China, Nvidia’s expansion into Saudi Arabia, and Trump’s repeal of a restrictive Biden-era chip trade policy, all ahead of the earnings report.

Analysts anticipate Nvidia will report significant earnings and revenue for its fiscal 2026 first quarter, but expect growth to slow. Revenue is projected to increase by over 66% to $43 billion, with adjusted earnings per share rising by 44% to $0.88. In the first quarter of the previous year, Nvidia reported a 262% increase in revenue and a 461% increase in earnings per share.

Investors will be closely monitoring the impact of Trump's ban on Nvidia's chip sales to China in the upcoming results. CEO Jensen Huang has stated that this policy has cost the company $15 billion in sales.