Yale Study: AI Impact on US Jobs Limited So Far
Source: theguardian.com
A new academic study indicates that the US jobs market has not yet been significantly disrupted by advances in artificial intelligence. According to research from Yale University’s Budget Lab, there has been no “discernible disruption” since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022.
Historical Trends
The researchers stated that their conclusion aligns with historical trends, where technological shifts in workforces typically unfold over many years rather than just a few months. The study noted that computers did not become common in offices until about ten years after they were released to the public, and the transformation of office workflows took even longer.
The study suggests that even if new AI technologies have a dramatic impact on the labor market, widespread effects are likely to take more than 33 months to materialize.
Occupational Mix
The study also found that changes in the occupational mix in the US were already underway in 2021, and more recent changes do not seem more pronounced. These shifts appear “sluggish” when compared to the upheaval seen during the 1940s and 50s, particularly related to World War II.
Concerns About Generative AI
One major worry is that generative AI could lead to AI tools replacing human tasks in various sectors, potentially causing job losses. Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, cautioned in May that this technology might eliminate half of all entry-level office jobs within the next five years.
Sectors like newspapers, filmmaking, and business services such as accountancy were already experiencing shifts in occupational mix prior to the release of ChatGPT, the report stated.
The analysis, conducted by economists at the Budget Lab and the Brookings Institute, indicated that the US jobs mix has shown “no substantial acceleration in the rate of change in the composition of the labor market since the introduction of ChatGPT”.
Recent Data
However, the report did highlight some recent data revealing a difference in the jobs mix between recent graduates and older graduates aged 25-34. This data might indicate that AI is affecting employment for those early in their careers, but it could also simply reflect a slowing job market.
The report concludes that while there is widespread anxiety about AI’s effects on today’s labor market, current data suggests these concerns are still largely speculative. The data paints a picture of stability rather than major disruption at an economy-wide level.